Friday, June 11, 2010

Market direction

It's really difficult to predict, and anyone who thinks they can time the market...watch out! So with that, here's what I see. Today. the S&P500 is just above the 20DMA of 1087. If and when it breaks past the 200DMA at 1107, there's going to be a mad rush in. My thinking is that the market goes down a little to maybe test 1070, then goes up like a rocket past 1107 up to 1130 (maybe even 1150!) and then begins a terrible downhill acceleration that takes it below 1040. As far as timeframes, given that we are seeing such crazy volatility, I wouldn't be surprised to see 1130 by month end (June) and then a waterfall decline for the next 2 months or so. I am currently not investing for the long term, trying to just get into some swing trades.

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