Monday, June 28, 2010

Why Chrome + ARM could dethrone Microsoft + Intel

Just the main points
- Cost: No need to pay for windows if you use linux. ARM licensing costs per chip are really small!
- Power consumption: ARM's focus till now has been low power. Intel will fight with Atom, but it's still such a small business for them
- Software over the web: This means there is no real need to get an x86 processor for all that legacy s/w. New companies will work on a cloud only model. Older ones will retrofit for this.
- Tablets looking more like smartphones with bigger screens: So how about deeply integrating the two? The iPad looks like a big iphone. So what about your phone being the on-go version of your tablet such that you can seamlessly move between the two?
And finally
Big backers: Apple, Google - the bread and butter for these companies is based on ARM and the browser. So even if the oldies don't want to change, their hand will be forced.

Truly exciting times in the mobile device market.

Friday, June 11, 2010

Market direction

It's really difficult to predict, and anyone who thinks they can time the market...watch out! So with that, here's what I see. Today. the S&P500 is just above the 20DMA of 1087. If and when it breaks past the 200DMA at 1107, there's going to be a mad rush in. My thinking is that the market goes down a little to maybe test 1070, then goes up like a rocket past 1107 up to 1130 (maybe even 1150!) and then begins a terrible downhill acceleration that takes it below 1040. As far as timeframes, given that we are seeing such crazy volatility, I wouldn't be surprised to see 1130 by month end (June) and then a waterfall decline for the next 2 months or so. I am currently not investing for the long term, trying to just get into some swing trades.