Wednesday, September 29, 2010

nflx

While the broader markets have gone nowhere since reaching their peak in April, Netflix stock has doubled! Of course, the company has been going gangbusters while the competition lays by the wayside. Reasons attributed to the meteoric rise are expansion into Canadian markets, savings from postage costs as more subscribers shift to watch content online and the potential to add more subscribers attracted to its increasing arsenal of entertainment programming.

In spite of these reasons, valuing such a company at almost 60 times earnings is insane! This is purely a momentum stock. While it may do really well as a company in the long run, the stock will most likely not give good returns for anyone buying at such lofty levels. I just shorted some, ready to get my fingers burnt a little but will bail if it continues to go stratospheric.

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Junk

The junk bond rally through this year has been an absolute blessing for many companies. This means that companies with low credit ratings are able to issue bonds at favorable interest rates. Also, there is a lot of debt that needs to be refinanced in the next few years. Remember that the unavailability of short term financing was one of the big problems of the prior crisis. Although I don't have a sanguine view of the economy, it looks like the fiscal strain on many companies is being eased. Still, the household sector is in shambles and until that is restored, there will be no rapid growth in GDP.

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Solving a pain point leads to opportunity

This is a strong belief..that a truly successful idea needs to come with a solid value proposition. On that note, I am almost ready to opt in for a 2 year contract in lieu of an upfront discount for the purchase of my next Android phone. However, what phone do I buy? Can I test drive a phone to check out whether I like it or not?

The open-source nature of Android and the already available emulation platform lead me to believe that it is in the benefit of the phone manufacturer to write a s/w program (or web interface program) that allows potential customers to take their product for a test drive. The main concern here would be a dilution of the experience the user has when physically handling the device. Any clever ideas to resolve this pain point?